Five PDP Governors Defect To APC

 
The civil war within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party boiled over on Tuesday when five out of the seven aggrieved governors and some of their followers carried out a threat to dump the party and pitch their tent with the opposition All Progressives Congress.

This decision, some analysts argue, has been long in coming because attempts to broker peace between President Goodluck Jonathan and the aggrieved PDP members since September were largely unsuccessful.
The five aggrieved governors who have defected are: Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano); Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers); Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara); and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa).
However, Governors Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Babangida Aliyu (Niger) have for now, elected to remain within the PDP family.
Signs that the peace process would not succeed were made public by the Adamawa State governor, Murtala Nyako on November 12 when he pronounced the peace process “dead and buried.”
He was reacting to the suspension of the factional chairman of the party, Alhaji Kawu Baraje, its National Secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, National Vice Chairman Sam Jaja and a former National Vice Chairman (North-West), Senator Ibrahim Kazaure by the Alhaji Bamanga Tukur-led PDP.
He explained that the PDP under the leadership of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur shot itself in the foot by ignoring a legitimate court order to reinstate Oyinlola and taking actions which “killed and buried” the peace process.
Nyako, who spoke through his Director of Press and Public Affairs, Ahmad Sajoh, said he had always known that nothing good would come out of the discussions with a PDP where Tukur remained the national chairman.
He said, “We always knew there was no peace process. The peace process is dead and buried. The court had given them a soft landing but instead of obeying the court order, look at the step they have taken.
“It’s an ill wind that will blow nobody any good. We know that they are not committed to peace; Bamanga Tukur will lead this party to destruction.”
President Jonathan’s decision not to meet with them when he returned from the United Kingdom last Sunday and a charge by the Chairman, PDP Governors’ Forum Mr. Godswill Akpabio; daring them to leave the party barely 24 hours later, obliterated gains made during earlier meetings.
The decision to leave the PDP almost two years before the 2015 elections is considered by some observers as a gamble which has the capacity to go either way in favour of or against the interests of the governors concerned in particular, and the PDP in general.
Without doubt, this decision has far reaching implications for the fortunes of the ruling PDP especially in the North-West geo-political zone where three out of the seven aggrieved governors hold sway.
Governors Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Alhaji Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Musa Kwakwanso (Kano) who enjoys a considerable following may join forces with opposition elements in Zamfara, Katsina and Kebbi states, if things work in favour of the APC to give the PDP a fight for votes.
Statistics of the voting population released by the Independent National Electoral Commission after the voter registration exercise in 2011 show that a little over 73 million persons were registered.
Of this number, the North-West accounts for 18,900, 543 out of which Kano has 5,135, 415 and Jigawa has 1,852,698, Sokoto accounts for 2, 065,508 voters.
Kwara State accounts for 1,115,665 voters out of a total of 7,675,369 registered voters across the North-Central states.
Rivers State where Amaechi is governor accounts for 2,419,057 voters out of the 8,937,057 registered voters in the South-South geo-political zone.
These figures are likely to rise or fall depending on the number of deaths and the number of persons who will attain the voting age of 18 by 2015.
Pundits are of the view that the trio of Kwankwaso, Wammako and Lamido are critical to the survival of the PDP as a political force in the North-West.
Lamido and Kwakwanso for example, have been on the Nigerian political scene since the Second Republic.
During the aborted third republic for instance, Kwankwaso, who was Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, was elected governor of Kano State in 1999 but lost re-election in 2003 only to regain the seat in 2011.
On his part, Lamido was a pupil of the talakawa brand of politics championed by the late Mallam Aminu Kano, before emerging as National Secretary of the defunct SDP.
He, along with the likes of late Chief Solomon Lar and ex-Vice-President Alex Ekwueme were founding-fathers of the PDP.
He was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs during Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s first tenure (1999-2003).
Wamako was for the most part a civil servant before joining full time politics.
It may be recalled that a decision by the Bamanga Tukur-led PDP to suspend him backfired when the then North-West Vice-Chairman of the party, Ambassador Ibrahim Kazaure, led other zonal executives to dissociate themselves from the suspension.
The party was forced to swallow the humble pie when it lifted the suspension.
This singular act sent a message to some party supporters in the zone that some of their leaders were being victimized for holding opposing views.
Wamakko’s supporters across the zone joined their counterparts in Sokoto to welcome him back to the state capital after a trip abroad perhaps to demonstrate the level of acceptance he enjoys.
It is instructive to note that Wamakko’s political calculations have always included his political godson, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwual.
Tambuwal has remained faithful to his benefactor as both of them were members of the then All Nigeria Peoples Party before defecting to the PDP.
New political re-alignments are expected to unfold within the coming days as members of the House of Representatives and senators are likely to rise up to be counted when push comes to shove.
As things stand, the majority enjoyed by the PDP in the Senate and House of Representatives will be substantially reduced if some of the legislators toe the line of their state governors.
In the House of Representatives for example, the PDP stands the risks of losing at least four key principal offices if some of their members join the APC.
Those whose positions come under immediate threat include: the deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha; Majority leader, Mulikat Akande, Chief Whip, Ishaka Bawa; and deputy leader, Leo Ogor.
As at the last count, the opposition APC has 137 out of the 360 seats. The PDP and other smaller political parties such as the Labour Party, Accord and a faction of APGA account for the balance of 166.
The APC enjoyed a boost after the merger of opposition political parties such as the defunct ANPP, ACN, CPC and a faction of the APGA.
The PDP initially had 208 out of the 360 seats after the 2011 general elections, the internal crisis within the PDP paved the way for 57 out of this number to identify with the new PDP which has now identified with the APC.
If members of the new PDP were up to 100 like a leader of the outlawed new PDP once claimed, the number of APC members in the House could rise to 237 giving the party a clear majority.
The situation is different in the Senate where 20 senators earlier identified with the New PDP before the latest round of hostilities.
Unless something dramatic happens, the leadership structure in the Upper Legislative chamber will remain intact as even members of the opposition political parties have not had cause to complain.
At the national level, the race to occupy Aso Rock is likely to be fiercely contested for, although we no longer have a monolithic north.
The real strength of each of the governors is likely to unfold as 2014 wears on.
A number of the aggrieved governors have been unable to conduct free, fair and credible polls in their states to provide a true test of their individual strengths.
Four zones: North-Central, North-East, South-West and South-South-have six states each. The South-East has five.
However, the North-West has seven. This, some pundits argue, can be a political advantage if gladiators in the region get their acts together.
Since politics is a game of interest as well as of numbers, in the unlikely event that the scenario of the 2011 presidential elections repeats itself, the PDP may as well rest assured that it will have its way in 2015.
Proponents of this theory argue that not much has changed since the second republic.
They argue that the fact that the Peoples Redemption Party held sway in the old Kano State and the Nigeria Peoples Party took charge of the South-East and the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Unity Party of Nigeria held sway in the South-West and the old Bendel State; did not stop the National Party of Nigeria from clinching the Presidency.
Opponents however noted that times have changed. Irrespective of what individual interests exist, regional interests still play a key role in defining how the people vote.
Those who are conversant with politics in Nigeria contend that it is too early for anyone to rightly predict which political party will carry the day because for most politicians, real politics has just begun.

Source: PUNCH